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- June 21, 2011 -

Green Supply Chain News: Annual BP Review of World Energy Shows Sharp Rise in Energy Use in 2010, Worrisome Trends

 

Energy Consumption Rose 5.6% in 2010, Well above Economic Growth; Oil Reserves Growing Very Slowly

 
By The Green Supply Chain Editorial Staff

 
The Green Supply
Chain Says:

Proven oil reserves worldwide grew only .5% in 2010, to 1368 billion barrels, and much of that the result of perhaps dubious data coming out of Venezuela.

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The 60th edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy - an invaluable document for those interested in energy trends - has just been released for 2011, and the news is simply not good for those concerned about "peak oil" and greenhouse gas emissions.

Overall energy use surged in 2010, driven by a reasonably strong economic recovery coming out of the disastrous 2009 year, especially in developing nations. Global primary energy consumption rose 5.6% in 2010, the fastest annual increase since 1973 and easily taking 2010 past the previous peak year of 2008. But that growth was at vastly different rates between economically developed economies and more emerging ones. In the 34 developed economies belonging to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), energy usage grew just 3.4% last year, which, while at the highest annual level since 1984, still pales in comparison to the growth in energy consumption of 7.5% among non-OECD nations.

Even with the 2010 growth, energy consumption in OECD countries has in general been very slow over the past decade and then dropped during the recession, so that the level seen in 2010 was about equal to the total energy usage in 2000. Total energy consumption among non-OECD nations, on the other hand, is now 63% of the 2000 total. Non-OECD energy consumption has risen to 53.6% of the global total, versus 46.4% for developed countries.

Of course, China is a huge component of those non-OECD numbers, and the report says that for the first time, China in 2010 became the world's largest energy consumer, growing at a rate of 11.2% during 2010. That took China to a 20.3% share of global energy usage, versus 19% for the US. Amazingly from our view, the next highest country is Russia at just 5.8% of the total. Japan, the world's third largest economy, represents just 4.2% of global energy consumption.

Overall, as shown in the graph below, oil represents 33.6% of global energy usage and was up 3.1% in 2010 - but it still lost share to other fuels for the 11th consecutive year.

 

 

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011

 

Coal consumption grew by 7.6% in 2010, its fastest global growth since 2003. Coal now accounts for 29.6% of global energy consumption, up from 25.6% 10 years ago. But here again the story is China, where coal consumption grew by 10.1%; China last year consumed 48.2% of the world’s coal and accounted for nearly two-thirds of global consumption growth.

The Review for the first time started tracking renewable energy, which just didn't have enough share to be included in 2010. Last year, renewable energies represented 1.8% of total consumption, up from just 1.2% in 2009. That would mean global share of renewable energies grew about 50% last year, though obviously off of a very low base.

Some Worrisome Trends

The report certainly offers some causes for alarm, starting with oil development versus demand.

Global oil production increased by 1.8 million barrels per day or 2.2% in 2010, but did not match the rapid 3.1% growth in consumption, hence leading to a sharp rise in prices, reaching levels second only to those seen in 2008.

Of greater long-term concern, proven oil reserves worldwide grew only .5% in 2010, to 1368 billion barrels, and much of that the result of perhaps dubious data coming out of Venezuela. So, consumption growth of 3.1% was six times the growth of reserve identification, spelling long-term trouble for prices.

However, at the end of 2010 the global oil reserves-to-production ratio was 46.2 in terms of barrels, up from 40.3 ten years prior. It is notable though that the ratio in the Middle East region is down substantially from a peak in 1985, with a steady decline ever since.

Global warming worriers also cannot be happy with the data. Globally, energy consumption grew more rapidly than the economy, meaning that the energy intensity of economic activity increased for a second consecutive year. The data in turn implies that global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption also grew sharply in 2010.

While oil, a relatively heavy greenhouse gas producer, continues to lose market share, the even more GHG-intensive coal is gaining share, as noted above, driven by strong growth of coal-powered electric plants in China.

There is much more information in the full report and accompanying web site, which can be found here: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011.

Any reaction to the highlights of this year's BP report? Does the slow growth in proven oil reserves worry you? Are you surprised by growth in coal consumption globally? Let us know your thoughts at the Feedback button below.

 

 

 

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