In what the GreenSupplyChain.com believes is a reaction to flat global temperatures over the past 16 years, a new report from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will release a report at the end of the month that ups the ante on the potential impact of climate change, saying that wars, growing hunger and more are likely to occur if action is not soon taken.

The UK's The Independent newspaper received a draft copy of the report, and has summarized its details.

Rising temperatures "will place the world under enormous strain, forcing mass migration, especially in Asia, and increasing the risk of violent conflict," The Independent says in summarizing the report.

The report predicts that climate change will reduce median crop yields by 2% per decade for the rest of the century , while demand for food will continue to rise. This will lead to an increase in malnutrition in children by about a fifth, the UN report predicts.

The UN report also forecasts that the warming climate will take its toll on human health, pushing up the number of intense heat waves and fires and increasing the risk from food and water-borne diseases.

Among the areas that will be significantly affected by global warming include the following, according to the UN report and The Independent summary:

Coastal systems and low-lying areas: The report predicts that by the end of the century "hundreds of millions of people will be affected by coastal flooding and displaced due to land loss". The majority affected will be in East Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia. Rising sea levels mean coastal systems and low-lying areas will increasingly experience submergence, coastal flooding and coastal erosion.

Food security: Relatively low local temperature increases of 1degree Celsius or more above pre-industralized levels are projected to "negatively impact" yields of major crops such as wheat, rice and maize in tropical and temperate regions. The report forecasts that climate change will reduce median yields by up to 2% per decade for the rest of the century, against a backdrop of rising demand that is set to increase by 14% per decade until 2050.

The global economy: A global mean temperature increase of 2.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels may lead to global aggregate economic losses of between 0.2 and 2.0%, the report warns. Global GDP was $71.8 trillion in 2012, meaning a 2% reduction would wipe $1.4 trillion off the world's economic output that year.

Human health: Until mid-century, climate change will impact human health mainly by exacerbating problems that already exist, the report says. Climate change will lead to increases in ill-health in many regions, with examples including a greater likelihood of injury, disease and death due to more intense heat waves and fires; increased likelihood of under-nutrition; and increased risks from food and water-borne diseases.

Without accelerated investment in planned adaptations, climate change by 2050 would increase the number of undernourished children under the age of five by 20-25 million globally, or by 17-22%, it says.

Human security: Climate change over the 21st century will have a significant impact on forms of migration that compromise human security, the report states. For example, it indirectly increases the risks from violent conflict in the form of civil war, inter-group violence and violent protests by exacerbating well-established drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks.

Small-island states and other places highly vulnerable to sea-level rise face major challenges to their territorial integrity. Some "transboundary" impacts of climate change, such as changes in sea ice, shared water resources and migration of fish stocks have the potential to increase rivalry among states.

Freshwater resources: The draft of the report says "freshwater-related risks of climate change increase significantly with increasing greenhouse gas emissions." It finds that climate change will "reduce renewable surface water and groundwater resources significantly in most dry subtropical regions", exacerbating the competition for water. Terrestrial and freshwater species will also face an increased extinction risk under projected climate change during and beyond the 21st century.

Will this level of disaster really occur? That is the multi-trillion dollar question, but in our view this is more speculation than fact. We think that the global economy is more resilient than these predictions consider.

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